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In the game of the week, the Chiefs travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Ravens. Both teams enter this game undefeated, and many think this could be an AFC Championship Game preview. The line has settled at -3.5 in favor of the home Ravens, and Baltimore is -195 on the moneyline. In what is expected to be a high scoring game, the total is set at 54.

The BetQL NFL Best Bet Model loves the total in this game, listing it as a four-star bet. It is also favoring the first-half and full-game moneylines, listing them as three-star bets. Keep reading to see what these picks are.

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Chiefs-Ravens Betting Preview

Chiefs Outlook

After winning the Super Bowl, the Chiefs have picked up right where they left off. After a dominant Week 1 performance, the Chiefs struggled a bit against the Chargers, ultimately winning 23-20 in overtime. Even with their struggles, the Chiefs are attracting 53 percent of betting tickets and an astounding 67 percent of the money wagered on the spread, per the BetQL NFL Public Betting Dashboard.

While it seemed as if Patrick Mahomes struggled throughout their win against the Chargers, the final statline would beg to differ. Mahomes completed 27-of-47 pass attempts for 302 yards and two touchdowns. He didn’t turn the ball over, and his offensive line gave him ample protection, as he was sacked just once. 

Tyreek Hill caught five passes for 99 yards and a long touchdown. However, the duo was uncharacteristically inconsistent, with Hill catching just five of the 11 passes thrown his way. Luckily for Mahomes, he always has Travis Kelce as his security blanket. Kelce put up another monster game, catching nine of his 14 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown.

If there is one thing that is going to hold Kansas City back this season, it’s the defense. After playing well against the Texans in the opener, the Chiefs had a golden opportunity to establish themselves as a top-tier group against a rookie quarterback. Justin Herbert was making his first start, and he didn’t just look comfortable, the Chiefs at times made him look like a superstar. The rookie threw for 311 yards and a touchdown and was rarely under pressure. In total, the Chiefs allowed the Chargers to rack up 479 yards of offense, which has to be concerning with Lamar Jackson coming up.

Ravens Outlook

Another week, another easy victory for the Ravens. A week after demolishing the Browns in their opening season victory, it was business as usual for Baltimore, as it followed that up with a 33-16 win against the Texans. That victory now marks 14-straight regular season wins for the Ravens, and interestingly enough, one of only two losses last season for Baltimore came against the Chiefs.

With how well the Ravens have looked so far, it’s a surprise to see just 47 percent of the tickets and 33 percent of the money wagered on them, per BetQL NFL Public Betting Dashboard. Against the Texans, Lamar Jackson was efficient, but pedestrian. Jackson completed 18-of-24 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown. He added 54 yards on the ground, and that was the theme for Baltimore: Domination on the ground.

As a team, the Ravens ran for an astounding 230 yards on 37 carries. They averaged 6.2 yards per rush and got plus yardage seemingly whenever they wanted. This was the strategy that carried the Ravens to a 14-2 record in 2019, and they’re picking up right where they left off. This could spell good news for them, as the Chiefs struggled to defend the run against the Chargers, giving up 183 yards.

Each of the Ravens top three running backs averaged better than six yards a carry last week. Interestingly enough, their leading rusher was Gus Edwards, who many thought would be the third option in the backfield. Edwards rushed 10 times for 73 yards, while Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins added 55 and 48 yards, respectively. This trio will wear out defenses over the course of the season, and the ability to keep them fresh will be key to running out the clock late in games.

After allowing a touchdown to the Texans to cut the score to 10-7 in the second quarter last week, the Ravens defense really tightened up. It allowed just two field goals the rest of the way, keeping a dangerous quarterback out of the end zone for the final 39 minutes. Against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, it will be paramount for this defense to scrap together some stops and force them to settle for a few field goals. 

Prediction

BetQL’s NFL model labels the Ravens -195 moneyline as a three-star bet, and we are giving Baltimore a 67.8-percent chance to win outright. This is a stark difference from the 67 percent of the money in favor of Kansas City. Check out BetQL’s NFL Best Bets Dashboard to see what our algorithm has targeted as the strongest play in this game. The total is a very strong four-star bet. You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!

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September 28, 2020
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