The Bills are looking to finish the season strong and take home the AFC East title for the first time since 1995. To stay on track to do that, they’ll have to take down the Broncos in a Week 15 Saturday afternoon road game that might not be as easy as it looks on paper. Denver is not an easy place to play, and though the Broncos have some holes, they are well coached and have some good young talent on both sides of the ball. Still, NFL DFS owners should be more interested in rolling with the Bills in this contest, and that’s exactly what we did with our FanDuel Single-game lineup.
The Bills should continue to play well in this game, especially on offense. After all, they just gashed the undefeated Steelers’ defense in the second half of their Sunday night clash, so they should be able to move the ball on the Broncos. As such, we’re taking a four-Bills, one-Bronco approach to this game. The Bills offensive options were priced solidly, and the lineup we played fits together well. Going all-in on the Bills passing offense is certainly a risk, but the potential reward for that move is sky high.
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FanDuel Single-Game Picks: Broncos vs. Bills
MVP (1.5x points): Josh Allen, Bills ($16,500)
Allen is the best MVP option for this slate by a wide margin. His rushing floor (27 rushing yards per game, six rushing TDs on the ceiling) makes him a safe bet to produce, and he has logged at least two TDs in all but two games this year, as well. Allen has had some below-average games against good defenses, but as currently constituted, this Denver unit, missing top cornerback, A.J. Bouye and others, doesn’t qualify. Allen should have a chance to get close to his 24.26 FanDuel points-per-game average. No other player on this slate comes with that kind of upside and that kind of guaranteed production, especially against a Broncos defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to QBs (318) and is tied for the most rushing TDs allowed to the position (6).
BILLS-BRONCOS DFS: DraftKings Showdown
FLEX: Stefon Diggs, Bills ($15,000)
If we have Allen, we want to roll with his top receiver, no matter what the cost. Diggs is leading the NFL with 100 receptions and has registered a career-high 1,167 receiving yards so far. Allen will keep looking his way frequently, as Diggs is averaging 10.3 targets per game, good for the third-most among WRs. Diggs should have a big game and is one of the other top MVP options and would’ve been our choice were this a full-point PPR tournament.
FLEX: Cole Beasley, Bills ($10,500)
Beasley gives us another option for double points with Allen and comes at a more-than-reasonable price considering his production. In his past four games, Beasley has twice eclipsed 109 receiving yards and has found his way into the end zone. He is a bit of a boom-or-bust producer, but he’ll never have a truly bad game, and he has been averaging an impressive 9.5 targets per game in his past four contests. Beasley will be in position to rack up yards and catches, and much like Diggs, his presence gives us a chance to earn double points when Allen throws his way.
FLEX: Gabriel Davis, Bills ($10,000)
Yes, we’re a bit pass-happy with the Bills, but can you blame us? Their passing offense has been great this season, and with the Broncos unlikely to get much going against the Bills on offense, unless Drew Lock can show improvement against Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s strong defensive game plans, we’d rather just stack as much Bills talent as possible. With John Brown (ankle) set to miss his fourth game in a row, Davis will get another chance to start. Davis has scored once in each of his past three games and four of his past five in an expanded role with Brown out, and he should have a chance to do so again if the Broncos focus on Diggs and Beasley. With Allen and his top three WRs, the ceiling of this lineup is incredibly high.
FLEX: Phillip Lindsay, Broncos ($8,000)
If there’s one weakness of the Bills defense, it’s their ability to stop the run. They are one of 11 teams that have allowed 1,200 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs on the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos like to run the ball and often split carries between Melvin Gordon and Lindsay. With that said, Lindsay is much cheaper than his counterpart, as he has totaled 4.1 or fewer FanDuel points in his past three games while dealing with complications from knee and hip injuries. Despite that, Lindsay has averaged 13 touches per game in his past four outings, so he has a decent floor, and eventually, he will have another solid game. This is a good spot for him, and if he can get double-digit touches again, his floor will be high enough to bolster this lineup at this cost. And if he can somehow find the end zone, that would be a big win for us.