Who doesn’t love it when the NFL plays on Saturday late in the season? Even though Week 15’s Saturday games don’t look all that competitive on paper, they feature two of the best offenses in football, the Bills and Packers, which is always welcome by those in DFS contests. The key to cashing on this two-game slate is finding the right picks from the Panthers and Broncos, as well as a value or two who can help differentiate your lineup. Our picks for FanDuel tournaments follow that formula.
The first question everyone will have is whether to use Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen at QB. We chose Rodgers and stacked him with Davante Adams (duh). We also used Allen’s best stacking partner, Stefon Diggs, so we wouldn’t be left out in the cold in case Allen goes off. We only mixed in one Panther, though there are several worthwhile options, and we found room for two boom-or-bust Broncos who will hopefully give our somewhat-chalky lineup the differentiation it needs to make some real money.
SATURDAY FULL-STATE DFS: DraftKings lineup
Week 15 Saturday NFL DFS Lineup: FanDuel tournament picks
QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Panthers ($9,200)
For most, this spot will come down to Rodgers or Josh Allen, who’s actually $800 cheaper. Both are solid, but Rodgers is more consistent and less turnover-prone. If you want to go for a boom-or-bust contrarian play, then Drew Lock ($6,800) would be the guy because at least you know he’ll be chucking it.
RB Mike Davis, Panthers @ Packers ($7,400)
The Packers have struggled against the run most of the year, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. Davis, who’s averaged 17.9 touches per game in his 10 starts this year, should be able to take advantage. He’s been ceding more touches to backup Rodney Smith in recent weeks, but when the Panthers get close to the goal line or need their best players on the field in the fourth quarter, Davis is their go-to guy.
RB Jamaal Williams, Packers vs. Panthers ($5,200)
Because we didn’t take many risks with random receivers (e.g. Isaiah McKenzie, Pharoh Cooper, etc.), we opted for a “contrarian play” of Williams instead of Aaron Jones. It’s possible both have good games — and obviously Jones has the potential to really go off — but Williams out-carried Jones for most of last week’s game until the fourth quarter. This is more of a committee situation than most realize even though Jones is dominating snaps (70 percent to 30 percent last week), and Williams has the talent to exploit a Carolina defense that’s allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs.
WR Davante Adams, Packers vs. Panthers ($9,500)
If you fade him and he has his first bad game since Week 6, then you’ll be in good shape. If you fade him and he does what he’s been doing over his past eight games (averages of 8.5 receptions and 111.4 yards and 12 total TDs), you have little chance of cashing. We’ll play it safe.
WR Stefon Diggs, Bills @ Broncos ($8,200)
Diggs doesn’t score at the same clip Adams does, so it’s more reasonable to fade him, but he’s still automatic points in the form of receptions (10 in three of his past four games) and yards (at least 92 in five of his past six games). Yeah, he and Adams will be highly owned, but we’ll worry about differentiation elsewhere.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Broncos vs. Bills ($5,300)
Jeudy has caught just three passes for 47 yards the past three games, but in the four contests prior, he averaged 4.5 catches and 75.8 yards on 10 targets. Unless his nagging injuries are really slowing him down, we’ll assume he’s just in a slump and is due to break out. The Bills have a solid secondary, but Jeudy can still rip off a big play or rack up catches in garbage time.
TE Nick Vannett, Broncos vs. Bills ($4,600)
It’s unclear if Noah Fant (illness) will be 100 percent for this game, but either way, Vannett has some upside. He’s played at least 45 percent of Denver’s snaps in each of the past four weeks, and at 6-6, 261 pounds, he’s a big red-zone target for Drew Lock. This is basically a touchdown-or-bust play, but we don’t want to pay up for Robert Tonyan and Fant is a question mark, so we’ll hope Vannett is our longshot that pays off.
FLEX Zack Moss, Bills @ Broncos ($5,700)
Moss had six more carries and played 19 percent more snaps than Devin Singletary last week. Even though he hasn’t done much with his touches, he’s still more likely than Singletary to get a touchdown and be the one to run out the clock in the fourth quarter if Buffalo has a big lead. We’ll bank on this being the week Moss finds the end zone again.
DEF Buffalo Bills @ Broncos ($4,800)
Buffalo is by far the most expensive defense because it has by far the best matchup. Generally, we look to pay down at D/ST and hope for a random big play, as the most obvious choice often doesn’t work out at defense, but we’ll take the bait and go with chalk pick here.